Rates to remain on hold in August?

After three rate rises earlier this year and the Reserve Bank holding steady in June, the question now is whether August will bring any surprises.

The RBA’s Monetary Policy Board meets next Tuesday, 11 August, with the cash rate currently sitting at 4.35%.

While earlier this year economists were divided on whether further rate rises would be needed, the latest inflation figures have shifted expectations. All four major banks are now forecasting the RBA will leave the cash rate unchanged.

So, is the hiking cycle finally over? The consensus says yes, for now. But there are still a few factors borrowers should keep an eye on.

Key takeaways

• The RBA has lifted the cash rate three times in 2026 before holding steady in June.
• Inflation eased again in the June quarter, reducing pressure for another rate rise.
• All four major banks now expect the RBA to leave the cash rate unchanged on 11 August.
• While further hikes appear less likely, economists still expect interest rates to remain higher for longer.
• Now is still a good time for borrowers to review their home loan.

Inflation has continued to cool

Inflation remains the biggest influence on every RBA decision, and the latest figures have provided some welcome news for borrowers.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics’ June quarter inflation data showed headline inflation easing further, with underlying inflation also coming in lower than many economists expected. While inflation remains above the RBA’s preferred target range, the latest results suggest previous rate rises are continuing to slow price growth across the economy.  

That has significantly reduced expectations of another immediate rate increase.

Markets that were previously pricing some chance of another hike have now largely shifted towards expecting the RBA to remain on hold in August.  

That doesn’t necessarily mean rate cuts are around the corner.

The RBA has consistently said it remains focused on returning inflation to its 2–3% target band and will continue to make decisions based on incoming economic data.

What the major banks are predicting

Perhaps the biggest development since the June meeting is that Australia’s major banks are now aligned.

Westpac, which had previously forecast two additional rate rises this year, has revised its outlook following the latest inflation data. It now joins NAB, Commonwealth Bank and ANZ in expecting the cash rate to remain unchanged at the August meeting.  

Here’s where each of the major banks currently stands:

As of 5 August 2026.

While economists are increasingly confident rates have peaked, the timing of any future rate cuts remains uncertain and will depend on inflation continuing to ease over coming months.

What this means for loan repayments

If the RBA leaves the cash rate unchanged next week, borrowers may not see another increase in their minimum home loan repayments.

That will come as welcome relief after three consecutive rate rises earlier this year, which have already added hundreds of dollars each month to repayments for many Australian households.

However, borrowers should remember that mortgage rates remain at their highest levels in years. Even without further increases, many households continue to feel the impact of higher repayments and increased cost-of-living pressures.

Rather than assuming rates will fall soon, borrowers may benefit from reviewing whether they’re still on a competitive interest rate today.

What can you do if you’re concerned about repayments?

Know your current rate. Check your latest loan statement so you know exactly what interest rate you’re paying.

Compare your options. Lenders continue to compete for quality borrowers, and refinancing may help reduce your repayments even if the official cash rate doesn’t change.

Speak with someone who compares lenders. A Yellow Brick Road broker can compare your loan across a wide panel of lenders and help you understand whether refinancing could put you in a better position.

While the outlook has become more encouraging, interest rates remain high by recent standards. Having someone review your options could make a meaningful difference to your repayments.

Start at ybr.com.au/refinance-home-loan, or speak with your local Yellow Brick Road broker today.